The influence of copper recycling on prospective resource supply and carbon emission reduction

Copper is a strategic metal essential to modern economies. However, its future supply is increasingly uncertain due to declining ore grades and surging global demand. In a new study published in Fundamental Research, a team of researchers led by Professor Xianlai Zeng from Tsinghua University examined how enhanced copper recycling can secure future resource supply while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions.

The study addresses a dual challenge: as primary copper production becomes more resource-intensive and environmentally damaging, recycling offers a promising pathway to lessen reliance on virgin ore extraction. “We developed both dynamic and static models that forecast copper consumption, cumulative demand, and associated carbon emissions up to the year 2100,” shares Zeng. “Our approach integrates various factors such as population growth, rising per capita copper use, and the inevitable decline in ore quality that escalates the energy requirements—and carbon footprint—of mining and refining operations.”

The team’s findings suggest that boosting copper recycling rates can significantly mitigate resource scarcity and cut down carbon emissions from the extraction processes. “If we can achieve recycling rates between 60% and 80%, primary copper demand would decrease markedly, easing the burden on natural reserves and providing a substantial reduction in emissions,” explains Zeng.

By simulating scenarios across different regions—including high-demand areas like Asia and regions with more advanced waste management systems such as Europe and North America—the study highlights the uneven prospects of global copper sustainability. Notably, in Asia where rapid industrial development drives high consumption, recycling infrastructure remains suboptimal, meaning that achieving these elevated recycling targets will be particularly challenging. “Conversely, established economies with mature recycling and waste-collection systems show greater potential for increasing secondary production, thereby reducing the dependence on environmentally costly primary copper extraction,” says Zeng.

The modeling work outlines how enhanced recycling not only contributes to resource conservation but also plays a critical role in carbon mitigation. The researchers found that in scenarios with aggressive recycling, carbon emissions from copper production could peak between 2030 and 2060 before steadily declining, with some regions even reaching near-zero emissions by the end of the century. These projections underscore the importance of integrating circular economy strategies into metal management policies.

“Our findings provide a roadmap for policymakers and industry stakeholders. It emphasizes the need for improved scrap collection systems, innovation in recycling technologies, and targeted policy interventions that encourage sustainable product design,” adds Zeng. “The study ultimately reveals that transitioning to a more circular copper economy is essential not only for long-term resource security but also for meeting global carbon reduction targets—paving the way toward a more sustainable industrial future.”

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Contact the author: Xianlai Zeng, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China, [email protected]

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